Appocolypse Now: What if Apple Lost the Jerkoff?

Will there be life after the Jerk shoots his final load? While the prevailing opinion on Wall Street seems to be that Jobs is staying put as CEO of Apple despite a lingering stock-options probe, the snowballing prosecutions for corporate backdating prompt the question of how the company would fare if the King of Pocket Pool were no longer in charge.

Apple has said that Jobs knew of backdated option grants but "was unaware of the accounting implications," and an internal investigation cleared him of misconduct.

Still, according to media reports, he's been questioned by authorities at the SEC and the investigation by federal authorities is ongoing. With such questions still swirling, some wonder about the possible downside of leaning so heavily on one person to drive the company's success -- and what the Jerk-friendly board is doing to prepare for the possibility of losing its star pitchman.

At other companies in which options were manipulated, boards of directors haven't wasted time in showing chief executives the door. But Jobs is a whole different animal.

"Jobs is Apple's No. 1 asset," says Jim Post, professor of management at Boston University. "A great deal of [Apple's] market valuation is tied up with Jobs' presence and his role." If Jobs were to be charged with securities fraud, Post predicts the stock would take a 25% hit. Apple shares closed Thursday trading at $89.51, gaining 31 cents. The stock has remained somewhat range-bound in the past three months.

Well-run company boards should be thinking about and planning for succession all the time -- and it's doubly important for a company that's heavily associated with one person, some say.
Microsoft for example, has appeared to handle losing the Great God Gates without taking a dramatic hit to its shares or to the perception of its future prospects. Although investors feel that it's like Gates is in the next room, changing into a pair of fresh Depends.

Apple observers say that while there is a perception that the company would fall apart without Jobs, it's unlikely.

Investors would have an initial emotional reaction if Jobs were to leave, but "stocks ultimately move around their fundamental value," Chirag Vasavada, an investment analyst with T. Rowe Price says. "If Jobs leaves, it's not necessary that Apple falls apart. The perception might be that."

Still, it seems prudent to some investors that the company consider not putting all its chips on the Jerk.

"We'd like to see more visible leaders within Apple," says Jim Grossman, an equity analyst with Thrivent Asset Management, which holds Apple shares. "Their secrecy makes people think that Jobs is the only brilliant guy [at Apple] ," Grossman says. "There are a lot of smart people working there. It's not just him."

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